Odds of single vote deciding election: 1 in 60M

WASHINGTON – Voting for president and having your ballot be the deciding one cast — statistically, that is like trying to hit the lottery. The odds for the average person are 60 million to 1 against it, a study shows.

In some states, the odds of being the vote that tips the election to your candidate are much better. In others they are astronomically worse.

The study by three prominent statisticians used millions of computer runs of polling data to examine the likelihood that a single vote will carry a state and that that particular state will tip the balance in the Electoral College. The statisticians were trying to answer the question: “What is the probability your vote will make a difference?”

The answer is very low. You are far more likely to be hit twice by lightning.

Trying to figure out what the odds would be if the polls are wrong and the race is tighter than expected, the statisticians made some more calculations after boosting John McCain’s numbers across the board and figured the average person would then have a 1 in 12 million chance of their vote deciding the election.

Either way, “it’s still a chance, it’s like buying a Powerball ticket,” said study lead author Andrew Gelman, a professor of statistics and political science at Columbia University.

For some people, though, the odds approach fathomable numbers. Residents of swing states have the best odds of swinging the election. That’s based not on the size of the state but the likelihood that the race will be close and that their state will make the difference in the Electoral College.

In New Mexico, the odds are 1 in 6.1 million of a voter casting the ultimate deciding vote.

“If you’re in New Mexico, you have a better chance of having your vote matter than winning the New York Lottery,” said study co-author Aaron Edlin, a professor of economics and law at the University of California, Berkeley.

In Virginia, the odds are 1 in 7.9 million. New Hampshire residents have 1 in 8 million chance of being the key vote. In Colorado, the odds are 1 in 9.9 million. In those states, voters are more likely to decide the election than die by dog bite this year.

For everyone else after those four states, fat chance. The next lowest odds — for Nevada — are 1 in 28.2 million, worse than death-by-dog bite odds of 1 in 10.9 million in one year.

Thirty-four states have odds greater than 1 in 100 million; 20 states have odds worse than 1 in 1 billion. Alabama’s odds are 1 in 12.2 billion. Oklahoma’s odds are 1 in 20.5 billion. But the nation’s capital has it the worst. The odds of a District of Columbia resident casting the vote that decides the election are 1 in 490 billion.

That’s essentially zero, but Gelman said: “We never like to say zero in statistics.”

The third author is prominent baseball statistician Nate Silver, who also runs the political polling Web site http://www.fivethirtyeight.com. (There are 538 electoral votes nationwide.) The polling used for their study is from Silver’s Web site and aggregates numerous polls of varying standards.

Even though the odds are against their own votes making a difference, the authors plan to vote, mostly out of altruism and civic duty. And they urge everyone to do so, no matter what the odds of their vote being the deciding factor.

Gelman lives in New York, where the odds are 1.9 billion to 1 that his vote will make the difference. “I always vote,” he said. “I do think that it’s a privilege that we have.”

That is a good question to ask if you are planning a trip. A good source is the NTSB website. They have tables full of Statistics so I will try to summarize it. It is also good info on crash investigations and has reported findings that make for some good information—although it might scare some people away from flying.

Scheduled US Airlines Stats for 2006
25 Accidents with 2 fatal accidents out of 11,200,000 flights.
Total 50 fatalies
Accident rate per 100,000 is 0.223 or 0.018 for those with fatalies.

General Aviation in US for 2006
1,515 accidents with 303 fatal ones out of 22,800,000 flight hours.
No rate as not all private flights are recorded.
This data is under Aviation menu of NTSB site. I searched for similiar statistics for accidents on the highway but did not see any.
Reference: www.ntsb.gov/aviation/aviation.htm

Here’s an interesting statistic. If you took a flight every day, from any random airport to any other airport, it would be 6,000 years before you are statistically likely to be involved in an air accident, and the chances are that you would servive it.

The chances of being attacked by a shark are very small compared to other animal attacks, natural disasters, and ocean-side dangers. Many more people drown in the ocean every year than are bitten by sharks. The few attacks that occur every year are an excellent indication that sharks do not feed on humans and that most attacks are simply due to mistaken identity.

What are the different types of shark attacks??
Provoked attacks are caused by humans touching sharks. Often this involves unhooking sharks or removing them from fishing nets. However, recently there have been a number of incidents involving divers who were attacked after grabbing or feeding a shark while underwater.

Unprovoked attacks happen when sharks make the first contact. This can take three forms:

• Hit-and-Run Attacks happen near beaches, where sharks try to make a living capturing fish. In pounding surf, strong currents, and murky water, a shark may mistake the movements of humans, usually at the surface, for those of their normal food, fish. The shark makes one grab, lets go, and immediately leaves the area. Legs or feet are often bitten; injuries usually are minor and deaths rarely occur.
• Sneak Attacks take place in deeper waters. The victim doesn’t see the shark before the attack. The result can be serious injury or death, especially if the shark continues to attack.
• Bump-and-Bite Attacks happen when the shark circles and actually bumps the victim with its head or body before biting. As in the sneak attack, the shark may attack repeatedly and cause serious injury or death.

The actual odds in the United States of America are; 244,000 to one of been struck by lightning in your lifetime. In fact they are a lot less than winning the lottery. So in case you are thinking you’re going to win the lottery for your retirement may I say to you; you are better off to save your money because the chance of you winning the lottery are over a million to one; whereas your chances of being struck by lightning are less than 250,000 to one. So consider this in 2006.

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